Political Stakes and Survival
The plan to ceasefire in Gaza conflict has evolved into a high-stakes game of survival for Hamas and Israeli leaders. The terms of the ceasefire could significantly impact their political futures and grip on power. For Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, his physical survival is also at stake. This complexity has made negotiations challenging and prolonged the conflict.
Failed Negotiations and US Involvement
Previous negotiations have faltered, primarily due to the precarious balance of power. US President Joe Biden’s recent plan introduces a phased approach, aiming to end the conflict, release hostages, and rebuild Palestinian territories. However, Biden acknowledged that transitioning from initial talks to a permanent ceasefire would be difficult, but essential for the deal’s success.
Israel’s Strategic Approach
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has strategic reasons for a cautious approach. The first phase involves releasing hostages, a move that could bolster his domestic support. Yet, Hamas is unlikely to release politically sensitive hostages without guarantees against a renewed conflict. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition demands the complete elimination of Hamas, adding further complexity.
US Support and Israeli Security
The US has submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council supporting Biden’s ceasefire plan. This plan’s success hinges on Netanyahu’s ability to balance his coalition’s demands and Hamas’s willingness to compromise. The Israeli military remains prepared to ensure security if a truce is reached, but Netanyahu’s political future depends on framing the deal as a success.
Internal Divisions and Leadership Challenges
Within Hamas, splits are emerging between leaders inside and outside Gaza. Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak suggests that Netanyahu’s actions aim to force Sinwar into rejecting the deal. Meanwhile, the displaced Israeli population is anxiously watching for any signs of resolution, with many unwilling to return home until key Hamas leaders are neutralised.
Civilian Impact and Future Uncertainty
For many Israelis, the failure to free all hostages is a significant moral issue. The ongoing conflict has displaced thousands, including individuals like Yarin Sultan, who fear that a ceasefire without decisive action against Hamas will only lead to future violence. The potential for renewed conflict remains, making the path to peace uncertain and fraught with challenges.
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