Rising Heat Across Continents
June 2024 has been officially declared the hottest June ever recorded globally, marking a continuation of the severe climate events that have dominated the year so far, according to the EU’s climate monitoring service. This unprecedented rise in temperatures has resulted in a 13-month period where each month has successively broken the previous temperature records.
The Unstoppable Heat Wave
Carlo Buontempo, the director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, emphasised that this trend is not just an anomaly but a significant shift in global climate patterns. “This sequence of extreme weather is likely to continue, ushering in new temperature highs as the planet’s climate system adjusts to increased levels of greenhouse gases,” Buontempo stated.
Global Consequences of Warming
The first half of 2024 witnessed extreme weather conditions worldwide. From severe heatwaves covering vast areas from the United States to Saudi Arabia, to unprecedented rainfall causing floods in multiple countries including Kenya and France, the impacts of the warming climate have been diverse and devastating. Additionally, the Atlantic hurricane season started with a record early category five hurricane, indicating intensified tropical activity.
Ocean Temperatures Adding to the Heat
The record temperatures align with this year’s El Nino event, which generally contributes to global warming. However, Julien Nicolas, a senior scientist at C3S, noted that rising ocean temperatures across several major bodies of water have also played a crucial role in boosting global heat levels. “The oceans, covering 70% of the Earth’s surface, absorb the majority of the excess heat, which significantly influences air temperatures worldwide,” Nicolas explained.
Future Climatic Shifts
Nicolas warned that the year 2024 could end up being warmer than 2023 if the high sea surface temperatures persist, despite the expected transition into the La Nina phase, which usually cools global temperatures. He also highlighted the importance of ongoing monitoring to predict and manage potential future climatic extremes.
Implications of Ongoing Temperature Records
Experts from Copernicus have pointed out that the temporary spikes in temperature, despite the ongoing changes the world is grappling with, do not suggest that the Paris Agreement’s warming limit of 1.5°C has been breached, as this threshold is calculated over much longer periods. Nonetheless, there is an 80% probability that within the next five years, annual global temperatures could surpass this critical limit at least temporarily.
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