Strategic Display of Power
Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to North Korea, aimed at bolstering support for the ongoing invasion in Ukraine, underscores the growing Putin-Kim alliance. This visit to Pyongyang, his first since 2000, featured a meticulously orchestrated display of camaraderie with Kim Jong Un. The welcoming hug, the honour guard, and the massive portraits of the two leaders highlighted their unity. During the visit, Kim expressed his “full support” for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, delivering a clear message to the West.
Mutual Needs Drive Alliance
Both leaders have critical needs driving this alliance: Putin requires ammunition to sustain his war efforts in Ukraine, while North Korea seeks financial support. However, the true power broker in this dynamic is China, whose influence both nations rely on heavily for trade and political clout.
China’s Cautious Stance
China’s presence looms large over this budding friendship. Reports suggest that Beijing urged Putin not to visit Pyongyang immediately after meeting President Xi Jinping. China, already under pressure from the US and Europe to limit support for Russia, cannot afford to appear too closely aligned with North Korea.
Economic Implications for China
China’s economic interests play a significant role in its cautious approach. As the world’s second-largest economy, China seeks to balance its international relations to maintain foreign investment and tourism. Beijing has recently relaxed visa requirements for several countries and is sending pandas to foreign zoos, signaling its desire to remain engaged with the global community.
Regional Security Concerns
China’s discomfort with North Korea’s aggressive posture is evident. Pyongyang’s missile tests have driven South Korea and Japan closer together, enhancing their defense cooperation with the US. This situation increases US military presence in the region, which Beijing views with apprehension.
Complex Diplomatic Balancing Act
While Putin and Kim seek to strengthen their alliance, their relationship with China remains paramount. Analysts, like Andrei Lankov from NK News, believe that significant military technology transfers from Russia to North Korea are unlikely, given the potential backlash from China. The burgeoning friendship between Russia and North Korea, although strategic, remains secondary to their essential ties with China.
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